摘 要
工程造价管理作为工程项目全生命周期中的关键环节，其风险识别与控制直接影响项目的经济效益与实施效果。随着工程建设规模的不断扩大和复杂性的增加，传统的造价管理方法已难以满足现代工程对精细化管理的需求。为此，本研究以工程造价中的风险识别与控制策略为切入点，旨在构建一套系统化、科学化的风险管理体系，以提升工程造价管理的效率与准确性。研究基于文献分析与案例研究相结合的方法，首先梳理了工程造价领域的主要风险类型及其成因，随后引入大数据分析技术与人工智能算法，开发了一种动态风险评估模型，用于实时监测和预测造价风险。通过对比分析多个实际工程项目的数据，验证了该模型在风险识别精度和预警时效性方面的显著优势。研究结果表明，所提出的控制策略能够有效降低因信息不对称和决策失误导致的额外成本，并显著提高项目预算的可控性。本研究的创新点在于将现代信息技术与传统造价管理理论深度融合，提出了适应复杂工程环境的风险管理框架，为工程造价领域的理论发展与实践应用提供了新的思路和工具。研究成果不仅有助于优化资源配置，还为行业标准的制定和完善提供了参考依据，具有重要的学术价值和实践意义。
关键词：工程造价管理；风险识别与控制；大数据分析；动态风险评估模型；信息化管理
Abstract
Engineering cost management, as a critical component throughout the entire lifecycle of engineering projects, directly influences the economic benefits and implementation outcomes of projects. With the continuous expansion of construction scales and increasing complexity, traditional cost management methods are no longer sufficient to meet the demands of modern engineering for refined management. To address this challenge, this study focuses on risk identification and control strategies in engineering cost management, aiming to construct a systematic and scientific risk management system to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of cost management. By integrating literature analysis with case studies, the research first identifies major risk types and their causes in the field of engineering costs. Subsequently, it incorporates big data analytics and artificial intelligence algorithms to develop a dynamic risk assessment model for real-time monitoring and prediction of cost risks. Through comparative analysis of data from multiple actual engineering projects, the model demonstrates significant advantages in terms of risk identification precision and early warning timeliness. The results indicate that the proposed control strategies effectively reduce additional costs caused by information asymmetry and decision-making errors, significantly improving the controllability of project budgets. The innovation of this study lies in the deep integration of modern information technology with traditional cost management theory, proposing a risk management fr amework adaptable to complex engineering environments, which provides new insights and tools for both theoretical development and practical applications in the field of engineering cost management. The research findings not only contribute to optimizing resource allocation but also offer reference for the formulation and improvement of industry standards, holding important academic value and practical significance.
Keywords: Engineering Cost Management; Risk Identification And Control; Big Data Analysis; Dynamic Risk Assessment Model; Information Management
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1工程造价风险管理的背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状综述 1
1.3研究方法与技术路线 1
2工程造价风险识别的关键因素分析 2
2.1工程造价风险的定义与分类 2
2.2主要风险来源及其特征 2
2.3数据驱动的风险识别方法 3
2.4风险识别中的常见误区与改进策略 4
2.5案例分析：典型工程的风险识别过程 4
3工程造价风险评估的理论与实践 5
3.1风险评估的基本原则与框架 5
3.2定量与定性评估方法的比较 5
3.3基于概率模型的风险评估技术 6
3.4动态评估在工程造价管理中的应用 6
3.5实践挑战与优化建议 7
4工程造价风险控制策略的设计与实施 7
4.1风险控制的核心目标与路径 7
4.2不同阶段的风险控制措施 8
4.3技术手段在风险控制中的作用 8
4.4组织与制度保障对风险控制的影响 9
4.5成功案例解析：风险控制的实际效果 9
结论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
