摘 要
工程造价管理中，材料价格波动作为影响项目成本的关键因素，一直是业界关注的重点问题。在当前全球经济不确定性增强的背景下，材料价格波动风险对工程项目的影响愈发显著，亟需系统性应对策略。本研究旨在探讨工程造价领域中材料价格波动的风险特征及其应对机制，以降低其对项目经济性和可持续性的负面影响。通过文献综述与案例分析相结合的方法，研究梳理了国内外相关理论与实践，并结合实际工程数据构建了基于情景模拟的价格波动预测模型。结果表明，材料价格波动具有较强的不确定性和周期性特征，且受政策、市场和技术等多重因素共同作用。为有效应对这一风险，本研究提出了多层次的综合应对策略，包括引入动态调整机制、优化合同条款设计以及加强供应链协同管理等措施。创新点在于首次将情景模拟技术应用于材料价格波动预测，并结合实际工程需求提出可操作性强的管理建议。研究成果不仅为工程造价管理者提供了科学决策依据，还对提升项目整体风险管理水平具有重要参考价值，为推动工程造价领域的精细化管理做出了积极贡献。
关键词：材料价格波动；工程造价管理；情景模拟；风险特征；应对策略
Abstract
In engineering cost management, material price fluctuations, as a key factor influencing project costs, have always been a focal issue of concern in the industry. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, the risk associated with material price fluctuations has become increasingly significant for engineering projects, necessitating systematic response strategies. This study aims to explore the risk characteristics of material price fluctuations and their corresponding mechanisms within the realm of engineering cost management, with the goal of mitigating their negative impacts on project economics and sustainability. By employing a combination of literature review and case analysis, this research examines relevant theories and practices both domestically and internationally, and constructs a price fluctuation prediction model based on scenario simulation using actual engineering data. The results indicate that material price fluctuations exhibit strong characteristics of uncertainty and cyclicity, influenced by multiple factors such as policy, market conditions, and technology. To effectively address this risk, this study proposes a multi-level integrated response strategy, including the introduction of dynamic adjustment mechanisms, optimization of contract clause design, and enhanced supply chain collaborative management. An innovation of this research lies in the first application of scenario simulation technology to predict material price fluctuations, coupled with practical management recommendations tailored to real-world engineering needs. The findings not only provide scientific decision-making support for engineering cost managers but also offer valuable insights for enhancing overall project risk management, contributing positively to the advancement of refined management in the field of engineering cost management.
Keywords: Material Price Fluctuation; Engineering Cost Management; Scenario Simulation; Risk Characteristics; Response Strategies
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1工程造价中材料价格波动的背景分析 1
1.2材料价格波动风险应对的研究意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状与发展趋势 1
1.4本文研究方法与技术路线 2
2材料价格波动的风险识别与评估 2
2.1材料价格波动的主要影响因素 2
2.2风险识别的技术与方法 3
2.3波动风险的量化评估模型 3
2.4历史数据在风险评估中的应用 4
2.5风险评估案例分析 4
3材料价格波动的应对策略设计 5
3.1策略制定的基本原则与框架 5
3.2合同管理中的风险分担机制 5
3.3动态调整机制的设计与实施 6
3.4供应链优化对风险的缓解作用 6
3.5信息化工具在策略设计中的应用 7
4应对策略的实际应用与效果评价 7
4.1实际工程中的策略应用案例 7
4.2策略实施的效果评估方法 8
4.3成本控制与经济效益分析 8
4.4风险应对策略的改进方向 9
4.5实践经验总结与推广建议 9
结论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
