摘 要
随着经济全球化和市场竞争的加剧，企业面临的财务风险日益复杂多变，内部控制质量成为影响企业财务状况稳定的重要因素。本研究旨在构建一个将内部控制质量纳入考量的企业财务风险预警模型，以期为企业提供更为精准有效的风险预警工具。基于此目的，选取2010 - 2020年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，运用因子分析法从众多内部控制评价指标中提取关键因子，并结合传统财务指标，利用Logistic回归模型进行建模。结果表明，内部控制质量与企业财务风险之间存在显著负相关关系，高质量的内部控制能够降低企业陷入财务危机的概率。相较于仅使用财务指标的传统预警模型，本研究构建的新模型在预测精度、准确度方面均有明显提升，其AUC值达到0.85以上。这一创新性研究不仅丰富了企业财务风险预警理论体系，还为管理层优化内部控制体系提供了实证依据，有助于企业在复杂的市场环境中提前识别并防范财务风险，保障企业的健康稳定发展。
关键词：内部控制质量 财务风险预警 因子分析
Abstract
With the intensification of economic globalization and market competition, enterprises are confronted with increasingly complex and volatile financial risks, making the quality of internal control a critical factor influencing the stability of corporate financial conditions. This study aims to construct an enterprise financial risk warning model that incorporates internal control quality, thereby providing a more precise and effective risk warning tool for enterprises. To achieve this ob jective, A-share listed companies in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2020 were selected as samples. Factor analysis was employed to extract key factors from numerous internal control evaluation indicators, which were then combined with traditional financial indicators using a Logistic regression model for modeling. The results indicate a significant negative correlation between internal control quality and corporate financial risk, suggesting that high-quality internal controls can reduce the probability of a company falling into financial distress. Compared with traditional warning models that rely solely on financial indicators, the new model developed in this study demonstrates notable improvements in prediction accuracy and precision, achieving an AUC value exceeding 0.85. This innovative research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of corporate financial risk warning systems but also provides empirical evidence for management to optimize internal control systems, aiding enterprises in identifying and preventing financial risks in advance within complex market environments, thereby ensuring healthy and stable corporate development.
Keyword:Internal Control Quality Financial Risk Warning Factor Analysis
目 录
引言 1
1内部控制质量评估体系构建 1
1.1内部控制要素分析 1
1.2评估指标体系设计 2
1.3质量评价方法选择 2
2企业财务风险识别与度量 3
2.1财务风险类型界定 3
2.2风险识别技术应用 4
2.3风险量化模型建立 4
3内部控制与财务风险关联性 2
3.1内控缺陷对风险影响 2
3.2风险传导机制研究 2
3.3关联性实证检验 3
4财务风险预警模型构建 3
4.1模型框架设计原则 3
4.2预警指标体系构建 4
4.3模型有效性验证 5
结论 5
参考文献 7
致谢 8
随着经济全球化和市场竞争的加剧，企业面临的财务风险日益复杂多变，内部控制质量成为影响企业财务状况稳定的重要因素。本研究旨在构建一个将内部控制质量纳入考量的企业财务风险预警模型，以期为企业提供更为精准有效的风险预警工具。基于此目的，选取2010 - 2020年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，运用因子分析法从众多内部控制评价指标中提取关键因子，并结合传统财务指标，利用Logistic回归模型进行建模。结果表明，内部控制质量与企业财务风险之间存在显著负相关关系，高质量的内部控制能够降低企业陷入财务危机的概率。相较于仅使用财务指标的传统预警模型，本研究构建的新模型在预测精度、准确度方面均有明显提升，其AUC值达到0.85以上。这一创新性研究不仅丰富了企业财务风险预警理论体系，还为管理层优化内部控制体系提供了实证依据，有助于企业在复杂的市场环境中提前识别并防范财务风险，保障企业的健康稳定发展。
关键词：内部控制质量 财务风险预警 因子分析
Abstract
With the intensification of economic globalization and market competition, enterprises are confronted with increasingly complex and volatile financial risks, making the quality of internal control a critical factor influencing the stability of corporate financial conditions. This study aims to construct an enterprise financial risk warning model that incorporates internal control quality, thereby providing a more precise and effective risk warning tool for enterprises. To achieve this ob jective, A-share listed companies in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2020 were selected as samples. Factor analysis was employed to extract key factors from numerous internal control evaluation indicators, which were then combined with traditional financial indicators using a Logistic regression model for modeling. The results indicate a significant negative correlation between internal control quality and corporate financial risk, suggesting that high-quality internal controls can reduce the probability of a company falling into financial distress. Compared with traditional warning models that rely solely on financial indicators, the new model developed in this study demonstrates notable improvements in prediction accuracy and precision, achieving an AUC value exceeding 0.85. This innovative research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of corporate financial risk warning systems but also provides empirical evidence for management to optimize internal control systems, aiding enterprises in identifying and preventing financial risks in advance within complex market environments, thereby ensuring healthy and stable corporate development.
Keyword:Internal Control Quality Financial Risk Warning Factor Analysis
目 录
引言 1
1内部控制质量评估体系构建 1
1.1内部控制要素分析 1
1.2评估指标体系设计 2
1.3质量评价方法选择 2
2企业财务风险识别与度量 3
2.1财务风险类型界定 3
2.2风险识别技术应用 4
2.3风险量化模型建立 4
3内部控制与财务风险关联性 2
3.1内控缺陷对风险影响 2
3.2风险传导机制研究 2
3.3关联性实证检验 3
4财务风险预警模型构建 3
4.1模型框架设计原则 3
4.2预警指标体系构建 4
4.3模型有效性验证 5
结论 5
参考文献 7
致谢 8
