摘要
人民币汇率波动作为影响我国进出口企业经营绩效的重要因素，近年来受到广泛关注。本研究以人民币汇率市场化改革为背景，探讨汇率波动对不同类型进出口企业的影响机制及其应对策略。通过构建面板数据模型并选取2015年至2022年间我国制造业上市公司的相关数据，研究发现汇率波动显著影响企业的出口竞争力与进口成本，且这种影响因企业规模、行业属性及区域经济特征而异。具体而言，中小型出口导向型企业受汇率波动的负面影响更为明显，而大型进口依赖型企业则可能从中受益。此外，研究还揭示了企业通过金融套期保值、多元化市场布局等方式能够有效缓解汇率风险。本研究的创新点在于结合微观企业数据与宏观经济变量，深入剖析了汇率波动的异质性影响，并提出了针对性政策建议，为完善我国外汇风险管理机制提供了理论支持和实践参考。研究成果不仅有助于企业优化经营决策，也为相关部门制定汇率政策提供了科学依据。
关键词：人民币汇率波动；进出口企业；汇率市场化改革；面板数据模型；金融套期保值
Abstract
The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, as a critical factor influencing the operating performance of China's import and export enterprises, has garnered significant attention in recent years. This study investigates the impact mechanism of exchange rate volatility on different types of import and export enterprises against the backdrop of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, along with their coping strategies. By constructing a panel data model and selecting relevant data from Chinese manufacturing listed companies between 2015 and 2022, the findings indicate that exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect both export competitiveness and import costs, with variations depending on firm size, industry characteristics, and regional economic features. Specifically, small and medium-sized export-oriented enterprises are more adversely affected by exchange rate volatility, whereas large import-dependent firms may benefit to some extent. Furthermore, the study reveals that enterprises can effectively mitigate exchange rate risks through financial hedging and diversified market strategies. The innovation of this research lies in its integration of micro-level enterprise data with macroeconomic variables, providing an in-depth analysis of the heterogeneous impacts of exchange rate fluctuations and offering targeted policy recommendations. These insights not only contribute theoretical support and practical references for improving China’s foreign exchange risk management mechanisms but also assist enterprises in optimizing their operational decisions and provide scientific evidence for relevant authorities in formulating exchange rate policies.
Keywords：Rmb Exchange Rate Fluctuation; Import And Export Enterprises; Exchange Rate Marketization Reform; Panel Data Model; Financial Hedging
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 人民币汇率波动的研究背景 1
(二) 研究人民币汇率波动对进出口企业影响的意义 1
(三) 国内外研究现状综述 1
(四) 本文研究方法与创新点 2
二、人民币汇率波动的理论基础 2
(一) 汇率波动的基本概念与机制 2
(二) 汇率波动对国际贸易的影响路径 3
(三) 进出口企业的汇率风险特征分析 3
(四) 汇率波动相关理论模型概述 4
三、汇率波动对进出口企业的影响分析 4
(一) 汇率波动对出口企业竞争力的影响 4
(二) 汇率波动对进口企业成本控制的影响 5
(三) 汇率波动对进出口企业利润水平的作用 5
(四) 不同类型企业受汇率波动影响的差异 6
四、应对汇率波动的策略与建议 7
(一) 进出口企业汇率风险管理的重要性 7
(二) 常用汇率避险工具的应用分析 7
(三) 政府在稳定汇率方面的政策支持 8
(四) 提升企业应对汇率波动能力的具体措施 8
结 论 10
参考文献 11
