摘 要
温室效应日益加剧背景下，农作物生长周期面临诸多挑战。本研究旨在探讨温室效应对不同农作物生长周期的影响，以期为农业适应气候变化提供科学依据。基于1980 - 2020年间的气象数据与作物物候观测资料，选取小麦、水稻和玉米三种主要粮食作物为研究对象，运用统计分析与模拟模型相结合的方法进行研究。结果表明，随着气温升高，三种作物的生长周期均呈现不同程度的缩短趋势，其中小麦生长周期平均缩短5天左右，水稻和玉米分别缩短3天和4天左右。此外，降水模式改变对作物生长周期也存在一定影响，但相较于温度因素影响较小。本研究创新性地将长时间序列气象数据与作物物候观测资料结合，从多角度揭示了温室效应对农作物生长周期的影响机制，为预测未来气候变化下农作物生长周期变化提供了新思路，有助于制定合理的农业种植制度调整策略，保障国家粮食安全。
关键词：温室效应；农作物生长周期；气候变化适应；小麦水稻玉米；温度影响；降水模式改变
Study On The Influence Of Greenhouse Effect On Crop Growth Cycle
ABSTRACT
Against the backdrop of intensifying greenhouse effects, crop growth cycles are facing numerous challenges. This study aims to investigate the impact of the greenhouse effect on the growth cycles of different crops, providing scientific evidence for agricultural adaptation to climate change. Based on meteorological data and phenological observation records from 1980 to 2020, this research selected three major food crops—wheat, rice, and maize—as subjects, employing a combination of statistical analysis and simulation models. The results indicate that with rising temperatures, the growth cycles of these three crops have shown varying degrees of shortening trends; specifically, the average growth cycle of wheat has shortened by approximately 5 days, while those of rice and maize have shortened by about 3 and 4 days, respectively. Additionally, changes in precipitation patterns also exert some influence on crop growth cycles, albeit less significant compared to temperature factors. Innovatively, this study integrates long-term meteorological data with crop phenological observations, revealing the mechanisms of how the greenhouse effect impacts crop growth cycles from multiple perspectives. It offers new insights into predicting changes in crop growth cycles under future climate change scenarios, contributing to the formulation of rational agricultural planting system adjustment strategies and ensuring national food security.
KEY WORDS：Greenhouse Effect；Crop Growth Cycle；Climate Change Adaptation；Wheat Rice Corn；Temperature Impact；Precipitation Pattern Change
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景与意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 1
第2章 温室效应下农作物生长周期变化 2
2.1 气温升高对作物生长期的影响 2
2.2 降水模式改变对作物的影响 2
2.3 极端气候事件频发的影响 3
第3章 温室效应对不同作物的具体影响 4
3.1 主要粮食作物的响应 4
3.2 经济作物的适应性变化 4
3.3 特色作物的生长周期调整 5
第4章 温室效应对农业管理的影响 6
4.1 种植制度的调整需求 6
4.2 农业灌溉模式的变革 6
4.3 病虫害防治策略的变化 7
第5章 结论 8
参考文献 9
致 谢 10
温室效应日益加剧背景下，农作物生长周期面临诸多挑战。本研究旨在探讨温室效应对不同农作物生长周期的影响，以期为农业适应气候变化提供科学依据。基于1980 - 2020年间的气象数据与作物物候观测资料，选取小麦、水稻和玉米三种主要粮食作物为研究对象，运用统计分析与模拟模型相结合的方法进行研究。结果表明，随着气温升高，三种作物的生长周期均呈现不同程度的缩短趋势，其中小麦生长周期平均缩短5天左右，水稻和玉米分别缩短3天和4天左右。此外，降水模式改变对作物生长周期也存在一定影响，但相较于温度因素影响较小。本研究创新性地将长时间序列气象数据与作物物候观测资料结合，从多角度揭示了温室效应对农作物生长周期的影响机制，为预测未来气候变化下农作物生长周期变化提供了新思路，有助于制定合理的农业种植制度调整策略，保障国家粮食安全。
关键词：温室效应；农作物生长周期；气候变化适应；小麦水稻玉米；温度影响；降水模式改变
Study On The Influence Of Greenhouse Effect On Crop Growth Cycle
ABSTRACT
Against the backdrop of intensifying greenhouse effects, crop growth cycles are facing numerous challenges. This study aims to investigate the impact of the greenhouse effect on the growth cycles of different crops, providing scientific evidence for agricultural adaptation to climate change. Based on meteorological data and phenological observation records from 1980 to 2020, this research selected three major food crops—wheat, rice, and maize—as subjects, employing a combination of statistical analysis and simulation models. The results indicate that with rising temperatures, the growth cycles of these three crops have shown varying degrees of shortening trends; specifically, the average growth cycle of wheat has shortened by approximately 5 days, while those of rice and maize have shortened by about 3 and 4 days, respectively. Additionally, changes in precipitation patterns also exert some influence on crop growth cycles, albeit less significant compared to temperature factors. Innovatively, this study integrates long-term meteorological data with crop phenological observations, revealing the mechanisms of how the greenhouse effect impacts crop growth cycles from multiple perspectives. It offers new insights into predicting changes in crop growth cycles under future climate change scenarios, contributing to the formulation of rational agricultural planting system adjustment strategies and ensuring national food security.
KEY WORDS：Greenhouse Effect；Crop Growth Cycle；Climate Change Adaptation；Wheat Rice Corn；Temperature Impact；Precipitation Pattern Change
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景与意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 1
第2章 温室效应下农作物生长周期变化 2
2.1 气温升高对作物生长期的影响 2
2.2 降水模式改变对作物的影响 2
2.3 极端气候事件频发的影响 3
第3章 温室效应对不同作物的具体影响 4
3.1 主要粮食作物的响应 4
3.2 经济作物的适应性变化 4
3.3 特色作物的生长周期调整 5
第4章 温室效应对农业管理的影响 6
4.1 种植制度的调整需求 6
4.2 农业灌溉模式的变革 6
4.3 病虫害防治策略的变化 7
第5章 结论 8
参考文献 9
致 谢 10
