摘 要
在全球化和信息化背景下，供应链面临诸多不确定性因素，供应商选择作为供应链风险管理的关键环节，对企业的稳定运营至关重要。本研究旨在探讨供应链风险管理中供应商选择存在的问题并提出相应对策，基于风险理论、供应链管理理论等多学科理论基础，综合运用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，通过构建供应商选择评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定各指标权重，并结合案例分析验证模型的有效性。研究发现，传统供应商选择往往侧重成本与质量，忽视了潜在风险因素的考量，而构建的风险导向型供应商选择模型能够全面评估供应商在供应稳定性、财务健康状况、环境适应能力等方面的表现。该模型不仅有助于企业识别高风险供应商，降低供应链中断风险，还为企业提供了一套科学合理的供应商选择决策支持工具，弥补了现有研究中缺乏系统性风险评估框架的不足，为供应链风险管理提供了新思路，对于提升企业竞争力具有重要现实意义。
关键词：供应链风险管理 供应商选择 风险导向型模型
Abstract
In the context of globalization and informatization, supply chains are confronted with numerous uncertainties. Supplier selection, as a critical component of supply chain risk management, is essential for the stable operation of enterprises. This study aims to investigate the issues in supplier selection within supply chain risk management and propose corresponding strategies. Based on multi-disciplinary theoretical foundations including risk theory and supply chain management theory, this research employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. It constructs an evaluation index system for supplier selection, determines the weights of each index using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and validates the model's effectiveness through case analysis. The findings reveal that traditional supplier selection often focuses on cost and quality while neglecting potential risk factors. In contrast, the risk-oriented supplier selection model developed in this study can comprehensively evaluate suppliers' performance in terms of supply stability, financial health, and environmental adaptability. This model not only aids enterprises in identifying high-risk suppliers and reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions but also provides a scientific and rational decision-support tool for supplier selection. It addresses the deficiency of lacking a systematic risk assessment fr amework in existing research and offers new insights into supply chain risk management, thereby enhancing corporate competitiveness.
Keyword:Supply Chain Risk Management Supplier Selection Risk-Oriented Model
目 录
引言 1
1供应商选择的风险识别 1
1.1供应链风险的来源分析 1
1.2供应商选择中的主要风险 2
1.3风险识别的方法与工具 2
2供应商选择的评价指标体系 3
2.1传统评价指标的局限性 3
2.2构建综合评价指标体系 3
2.3指标权重的确定方法 4
3供应商选择的风险评估模型 4
3.1定量评估模型构建 4
3.2定性评估方法应用 5
3.3模型验证与优化策略 5
4供应商选择的风险应对策略 6
4.1多供应商策略的应用 6
4.2合同管理与风险管理 6
4.3应急预案与持续改进 7
结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
