摘 要
通货膨胀作为宏观经济运行中的重要现象，其成因复杂且影响深远。本文旨在深入剖析通货膨胀的形成机制及演变规律，通过构建理论模型与实证分析相结合的研究框架，系统探讨通货膨胀的主要驱动因素及其政策应对策略。研究基于2000-2022年中国经济数据，运用向量自回归模型（VAR）和结构方程模型（SEM），识别出货币供应量、成本推动、需求拉动以及外部冲击四大核心因素，并量化各因素对通货膨胀率的影响程度。研究发现，货币政策传导机制的有效性是决定通货膨胀走势的关键变量，而供给侧改革对抑制成本推动型通胀具有显著作用。本文创新性地引入了“结构性通胀”概念，将短期波动与长期趋势相区分，为理解中国式通胀提供了新视角。通过对不同情景下的政策模拟，得出优化货币政策框架、加强预期管理、深化供给侧结构性改革是有效治理通货膨胀的重要路径。研究成果不仅丰富了通货膨胀理论体系，也为制定科学合理的宏观调控政策提供了实证依据，对于维护经济稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。
关键词：通货膨胀 货币政策传导机制 结构性通胀
Abstract
Inflation, as a significant phenomenon in macroeconomic operations, has complex causes and far-reaching impacts. This study aims to thoroughly analyze the formation mechanisms and evolution patterns of inflation by integrating theoretical modeling with empirical analysis, systematically exploring the primary driving forces behind inflation and corresponding policy responses. Based on Chinese economic data from 2000 to 2022, this research employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to identify four core factors: money supply, cost-push, demand-pull, and external shocks, while quantifying their respective influences on the inflation rate. The findings reveal that the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms is a critical determinant of inflation trends, and supply-side structural reform plays a significant role in curbing cost-push inflation. Innovatively, this study introduces the concept of "structural inflation," distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, thereby providing a new perspective on Chinese inflation. Through policy simulations under different scenarios, it concludes that optimizing the monetary policy fr amework, enhancing expectation management, and deepening supply-side structural reforms are crucial pathways for effective inflation governance. The research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of inflation but also offers empirical evidence for formulating scientifically sound and reasonable macroeconomic policies, which is of great practical significance for maintaining stable economic development.
Keyword:Inflation Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Structural Inflation
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法与思路 2
2通货膨胀的成因分析 2
2.1需求拉动型通胀成因 2
2.2成本推动型通胀成因 2
2.3结构性因素的影响 3
2.4政策因素的作用 4
3通货膨胀的传导机制 4
3.1货币政策传导路径 4
3.2价格传导机制分析 5
3.3供给冲击的传导效应 5
3.4国际因素的传导影响 6
4通货膨胀的对策建议 6
4.1宏观调控政策选择 6
4.2货币政策优化方向 7
4.3财政政策配合措施 7
4.4结构调整与改革建议 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
通货膨胀作为宏观经济运行中的重要现象，其成因复杂且影响深远。本文旨在深入剖析通货膨胀的形成机制及演变规律，通过构建理论模型与实证分析相结合的研究框架，系统探讨通货膨胀的主要驱动因素及其政策应对策略。研究基于2000-2022年中国经济数据，运用向量自回归模型（VAR）和结构方程模型（SEM），识别出货币供应量、成本推动、需求拉动以及外部冲击四大核心因素，并量化各因素对通货膨胀率的影响程度。研究发现，货币政策传导机制的有效性是决定通货膨胀走势的关键变量，而供给侧改革对抑制成本推动型通胀具有显著作用。本文创新性地引入了“结构性通胀”概念，将短期波动与长期趋势相区分，为理解中国式通胀提供了新视角。通过对不同情景下的政策模拟，得出优化货币政策框架、加强预期管理、深化供给侧结构性改革是有效治理通货膨胀的重要路径。研究成果不仅丰富了通货膨胀理论体系，也为制定科学合理的宏观调控政策提供了实证依据，对于维护经济稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。
关键词：通货膨胀 货币政策传导机制 结构性通胀
Abstract
Inflation, as a significant phenomenon in macroeconomic operations, has complex causes and far-reaching impacts. This study aims to thoroughly analyze the formation mechanisms and evolution patterns of inflation by integrating theoretical modeling with empirical analysis, systematically exploring the primary driving forces behind inflation and corresponding policy responses. Based on Chinese economic data from 2000 to 2022, this research employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to identify four core factors: money supply, cost-push, demand-pull, and external shocks, while quantifying their respective influences on the inflation rate. The findings reveal that the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms is a critical determinant of inflation trends, and supply-side structural reform plays a significant role in curbing cost-push inflation. Innovatively, this study introduces the concept of "structural inflation," distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, thereby providing a new perspective on Chinese inflation. Through policy simulations under different scenarios, it concludes that optimizing the monetary policy fr amework, enhancing expectation management, and deepening supply-side structural reforms are crucial pathways for effective inflation governance. The research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of inflation but also offers empirical evidence for formulating scientifically sound and reasonable macroeconomic policies, which is of great practical significance for maintaining stable economic development.
Keyword:Inflation Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Structural Inflation
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法与思路 2
2通货膨胀的成因分析 2
2.1需求拉动型通胀成因 2
2.2成本推动型通胀成因 2
2.3结构性因素的影响 3
2.4政策因素的作用 4
3通货膨胀的传导机制 4
3.1货币政策传导路径 4
3.2价格传导机制分析 5
3.3供给冲击的传导效应 5
3.4国际因素的传导影响 6
4通货膨胀的对策建议 6
4.1宏观调控政策选择 6
4.2货币政策优化方向 7
4.3财政政策配合措施 7
4.4结构调整与改革建议 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
