摘 要
在全球经济一体化不断深化的背景下，贸易便利化已成为推动国际贸易增长和区域经济合作的重要动力。“一带一路”倡议作为促进沿线国家互联互通与经贸合作的重要平台，其贸易便利化水平的测度对于评估合作成效、识别制约因素具有重要意义。本文旨在构建科学合理的评价指标体系，对“一带一路”沿线主要国家的贸易便利化水平进行量化分析，并探讨其影响因素与提升路径。研究采用世界银行、WTO及各国官方发布的多项权威数据，结合主成分分析法与熵值法对2010年至2022年间42个代表性国家的贸易便利化程度进行综合测度与动态比较。结果显示，“一带一路”沿线国家整体贸易便利化水平呈稳步上升趋势，但区域内差异仍较显著，部分国家在通关效率、基础设施和制度环境等方面存在明显短板。进一步分析发现，基础设施联通性、数字技术应用以及双边合作协议数量对贸易便利化具有显著正向影响。本文的创新点在于构建了多维度、动态化的评价体系，并结合“一带一路”实际提出针对性政策建议，为深化区域经济合作、优化跨境贸易环境提供了理论支持与实践参考。
关键词：贸易便利化；“一带一路”倡议；主成分分析法；熵值法；基础设施联通性
Measuring the Level of Trade Facilitation in Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative
Abstract: Against the backdrop of deepening global economic integration, trade facilitation has become a crucial driving force for promoting international trade growth and regional economic cooperation. As an important platform for enhancing connectivity and economic and trade cooperation among participating countries, measuring the level of trade facilitation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) holds significant implications for evaluating cooperation effectiveness and identifying constraining factors. This paper aims to construct a scientifically sound and reasonable evaluation index system to quantitatively analyze the level of trade facilitation in major BRI countries and to explore its influencing factors and improvement pathways. Drawing on multiple authoritative data sources from the World Bank, the WTO, and national governments, this study employs principal component analysis and the entropy method to conduct a comprehensive measurement and dynamic comparison of trade facilitation levels across 42 representative countries from 2010 to 2022. The results indicate that the overall level of trade facilitation among BRI countries has shown a steady upward trend, although significant regional disparities remain, with certain countries exhibiting notable shortcomings in areas such as customs efficiency, infrastructure, and institutional environment. Further analysis reveals that infrastructure connectivity, digital technology application, and the number of bilateral cooperation agreements have a significantly positive impact on trade facilitation. The innovation of this paper lies in the construction of a multidimensional and dynamic evaluation system, and the proposal of targeted policy recommendations based on the actual conditions of the BRI, thereby providing theoretical support and practical reference for deepening regional economic cooperation and optimizing cross-border trade environments.
Keywords: Trade Facilitation; Belt And Road Initiative; Principal Component Analysis; Entropy Method; Infrastructure Connectivity
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究意义 1
1.3研究现状 1
1.4本文研究《“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平测度》的方法 2
2贸易便利化的概念界定与指标体系构建 2
2.1贸易便利化的核心内涵与理论基础 2
2.2适用于“一带一路”国家的测度维度选择 2
2.3指标选取的原则与数据可得性分析 3
2.4指标体系的构建过程与逻辑框架 3
3“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平的测度模型设计 4
3.1测度方法的选择依据与适用性分析 4
3.2数据标准化处理与权重设定方法 4
3.3综合评价模型的构建与计算流程 4
3.4测度结果的解释机制与稳健性检验 5
4“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平的实证分析 5
4.1样本国家的选取范围与代表性分析 5
4.2各国贸易便利化水平的总体分布特征 6
4.3不同区域和收入组别的差异比较 6
4.4典型国家案例分析与经验启示 7
5提升“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化的路径建议 7
5.1当前贸易便利化水平的主要制约因素 7
5.2基于测度结果的政策优化方向 7
5.3区域合作机制对便利化的推动作用 8
5.4数字技术赋能贸易便利化的前景展望 8
结论 8
参考文献 10
致 谢 11
