摘 要
通闲林水厂是杭州市千岛湖的一项新水源，在千岛湖的引水工程中起着举足轻重的作用，按照千岛湖的规划，闲林水厂的一期工程必须在规划之内完成，不然会对杭州市的水网造成很大的冲击，九溪线的引水工程也在进行之中，引、配水的工程正在进行之中，九溪线的引水工程也已经竣工，引、配水的工程进度要比闲林水厂快得多。风险管理是工程项目的关键，而风险评价是整个工程项目的关键。所以，运用一套行之有效的方法来辨识和评价闲林水厂的风险，对于工程风险的处理是非常必要的。
文章以风险管理的基本原理为基础，结合大量的文献资料，对风险评估的发展与运用进行了深入的探讨。接着，文章根据该项目的具体情况，通过对该项目的环境、特征进行了剖析，采用“头脑风暴”与风险结构分解相结合的方法，对该工程的风险进行了风险划分，包括自然风险、技术风险、政策风险、经济风险和治理风险。运用 AHP方法对所划分的风险进行了加权评分，然后运用模糊综合评判方法对各风险进行定量评定，得出了该项目总体的风险等级和各类型的风险等级。最后，在风险评价的基础上，针对该项目存在的问题，提出了相应的对策。
关键词：水厂建设工程 风险管理 风险评估
Abstract
Tongxianlin Water Plant is a new water source of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou, and plays an important role in the water diversion project of Qiandao Lake. According to the planning of Qiandao Lake, the first phase of Xianlin Water Plant must be completed within the planning, otherwise it will have a great impact on the water network of Hangzhou. The water diversion project of Jiuxi Line is also in progress, the water diversion and distribution project is in progress, and the water diversion project of Jiuxi Line has also been completed The progress of water distribution works is much faster than that of Xianlin Water Plant. Risk management is the key of the project, and risk evaluation is the key of the whole project. Therefore, it is necessary to use a set of effective methods to identify and evaluate the risks of Xianlin Water Plant for the treatment of engineering risks.
Based on the basic principles of risk management, combined with a large number of literature, this paper makes an in-depth discussion on the development and application of risk assessment. Then, according to the specific situation of the project, the article analyzes the environment and characteristics of the project, and uses the method of combining "brainstorming" and risk structure decomposition to divide the risks of the project, including natural risks, technical risks, policy risks, economic risks and governance risks. The AHP method is used to make a weighted score of the divided risks, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to make a quantitative evaluation of each risk, and the overall risk grade and each type of risk grade of the project are obtained. Finally, on the basis of risk assessment, the corresponding countermeasures are proposed for the existing problems of the project.
Key words: Water plant construction project Risk management risk assessment
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 前言 1
2 基本概述和理论 2
2.1 风险及风险管理 2
2.1.1 风险 2
2.1.2 风险管理 3
2.2 建设工程项目风险评估国内研究现状 3
3 闲林水厂建设工程风险识别 4
3.1 闲林水厂建设工程风险识别现状分析 5
3.2 闲林水厂建设工程风险因素分析 5
4 闲林水厂建设工程风险评估 5
4.1 风险评估方法选择 6
4.2 建立风险集合及风险评价集合 7
4.3 评估结果分析 8
5 闲林水厂建设工程风险应对建议 9
5.1 自然风险应对建议 9
5.2 政策风险应对建议 9
5.3 经济风险应对建议 9
5.4 技术风险应对建议 10
5.5 管理风险应对建议 10
5 结论 11
参考文献 13
致 谢 15
通闲林水厂是杭州市千岛湖的一项新水源，在千岛湖的引水工程中起着举足轻重的作用，按照千岛湖的规划，闲林水厂的一期工程必须在规划之内完成，不然会对杭州市的水网造成很大的冲击，九溪线的引水工程也在进行之中，引、配水的工程正在进行之中，九溪线的引水工程也已经竣工，引、配水的工程进度要比闲林水厂快得多。风险管理是工程项目的关键，而风险评价是整个工程项目的关键。所以，运用一套行之有效的方法来辨识和评价闲林水厂的风险，对于工程风险的处理是非常必要的。
文章以风险管理的基本原理为基础，结合大量的文献资料，对风险评估的发展与运用进行了深入的探讨。接着，文章根据该项目的具体情况，通过对该项目的环境、特征进行了剖析，采用“头脑风暴”与风险结构分解相结合的方法，对该工程的风险进行了风险划分，包括自然风险、技术风险、政策风险、经济风险和治理风险。运用 AHP方法对所划分的风险进行了加权评分，然后运用模糊综合评判方法对各风险进行定量评定，得出了该项目总体的风险等级和各类型的风险等级。最后，在风险评价的基础上，针对该项目存在的问题，提出了相应的对策。
关键词：水厂建设工程 风险管理 风险评估
Abstract
Tongxianlin Water Plant is a new water source of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou, and plays an important role in the water diversion project of Qiandao Lake. According to the planning of Qiandao Lake, the first phase of Xianlin Water Plant must be completed within the planning, otherwise it will have a great impact on the water network of Hangzhou. The water diversion project of Jiuxi Line is also in progress, the water diversion and distribution project is in progress, and the water diversion project of Jiuxi Line has also been completed The progress of water distribution works is much faster than that of Xianlin Water Plant. Risk management is the key of the project, and risk evaluation is the key of the whole project. Therefore, it is necessary to use a set of effective methods to identify and evaluate the risks of Xianlin Water Plant for the treatment of engineering risks.
Based on the basic principles of risk management, combined with a large number of literature, this paper makes an in-depth discussion on the development and application of risk assessment. Then, according to the specific situation of the project, the article analyzes the environment and characteristics of the project, and uses the method of combining "brainstorming" and risk structure decomposition to divide the risks of the project, including natural risks, technical risks, policy risks, economic risks and governance risks. The AHP method is used to make a weighted score of the divided risks, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to make a quantitative evaluation of each risk, and the overall risk grade and each type of risk grade of the project are obtained. Finally, on the basis of risk assessment, the corresponding countermeasures are proposed for the existing problems of the project.
Key words: Water plant construction project Risk management risk assessment
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 前言 1
2 基本概述和理论 2
2.1 风险及风险管理 2
2.1.1 风险 2
2.1.2 风险管理 3
2.2 建设工程项目风险评估国内研究现状 3
3 闲林水厂建设工程风险识别 4
3.1 闲林水厂建设工程风险识别现状分析 5
3.2 闲林水厂建设工程风险因素分析 5
4 闲林水厂建设工程风险评估 5
4.1 风险评估方法选择 6
4.2 建立风险集合及风险评价集合 7
4.3 评估结果分析 8
5 闲林水厂建设工程风险应对建议 9
5.1 自然风险应对建议 9
5.2 政策风险应对建议 9
5.3 经济风险应对建议 9
5.4 技术风险应对建议 10
5.5 管理风险应对建议 10
5 结论 11
参考文献 13
致 谢 15
