摘 要
随着经济全球化和市场竞争的加剧，并购重组已成为企业实现快速扩张、优化资源配置和提升竞争力的重要战略手段。然而，并购重组过程中的估值方法选择与风险控制策略直接影响交易的成功与否，因此成为学术界与实务界关注的核心问题。本研究以并购重组中的估值方法与风险控制为切入点，系统分析了常见估值方法的适用性及其潜在局限性，并结合实际案例探讨了风险控制的关键环节。研究采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，通过构建多元回归模型，对影响并购成功率的主要因素进行了量化评估。结果表明，不同行业与企业规模需匹配相应的估值方法，且动态调整机制在风险控制中具有重要作用。此外，研究发现信息不对称、文化冲突及整合能力不足是导致并购失败的主要风险来源。本研究的创新点在于提出了基于情景模拟的估值优化框架，并设计了一套涵盖事前、事中和事后的全流程风险管理体系，为实践提供了可操作性强的指导方案。总体而言，研究不仅丰富了并购重组领域的理论体系，还为企业决策者提供了科学依据，有助于提高并购成功率并降低潜在风险。
关键词：并购重组；估值方法；风险控制；情景模拟；动态调整机制
Abstract
With the deepening of economic globalization and intensifying market competition, mergers and acquisitions (M) have become a critical strategic tool for enterprises to achieve rapid expansion, optimize resource allocation, and enhance competitiveness. However, the choice of valuation methods and risk control strategies during M processes directly influence the success or failure of transactions, making them focal issues in both academia and practice. This study focuses on valuation methods and risk control in M, systematically analyzing the applicability and potential limitations of common valuation approaches while exploring key aspects of risk management through practical case studies. By integrating theoretical analysis with empirical research, a multiple regression model was constructed to quantitatively evaluate the primary factors affecting M success rates. The findings indicate that different industries and enterprise scales require corresponding valuation methods, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism plays a significant role in risk control. Additionally, the study reveals that information asymmetry, cultural conflicts, and insufficient integration capabilities are the main sources of risk leading to M failures. A key innovation of this research is the proposal of a scenario-based valuation optimization fr amework, along with a comprehensive risk management system covering pre-event, intra-event, and post-event phases, providing highly operational guidance for practice. Overall, this study not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of M but also offers scientific evidence for decision-makers, contributing to improved M success rates and reduced potential risks.
Keywords: Mergers And Acquisitions; Valuation Methods; Risk Control; Scenario Simulation; Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1并购重组研究的背景与意义 1
1.2估值方法与风险控制的研究现状 1
1.3本文研究方法与创新点 2
2并购重组中的估值方法分析 2
2.1常用估值方法的理论基础 2
2.2收益法在并购重组中的应用 3
2.3市场法与成本法的比较研究 3
2.4不同行业估值方法的选择策略 4
2.5估值方法的实际案例分析 4
3并购重组中的风险识别与评估 5
3.1并购重组的主要风险类型 5
3.2财务风险的识别与量化分析 5
3.3战略风险与运营风险的评估方法 6
3.4法律与合规风险的管理框架 6
3.5风险评估模型的应用实践 7
4并购重组中的风险控制策略研究 7
4.1风险控制的基本原则与框架 7
4.2合同设计与条款优化策略 8
4.3融资结构对风险控制的影响 8
4.4并购后整合的风险管理措施 9
4.5风险控制策略的实施效果评价 9
结论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
