摘 要
随着全球金融市场的深度融合，系统性风险的传导机制成为学术界和实务界关注的核心议题。本研究旨在探讨金融市场中系统性风险的形成、演化及传导路径，并通过构建多层网络模型结合时间序列分析方法，揭示不同市场参与者之间的交互作用及其对风险传播的影响。研究选取2010年至2022年间的主要国际金融市场数据，运用复杂网络理论与极端事件分析技术，识别关键风险节点并评估其在危机传播中的作用。结果表明，金融机构间的关联强度与结构特征显著影响系统性风险的传导效率，且跨境资本流动在危机扩散中扮演重要角色。本研究的创新点在于引入动态网络分析框架，弥补了传统静态模型的不足，同时提出了基于节点重要性排序的风险预警指标体系。这一发现为监管机构优化宏观审慎政策提供了理论依据和实践指导，有助于提升金融系统的稳定性和韧性。
关键词：系统性风险；动态网络分析；跨境资本流动
Abstract
With the deep integration of global financial markets, the transmission mechanism of systemic risk has become a core issue of concern for both academia and practice. This study aims to explore the formation, evolution, and transmission pathways of systemic risk in financial markets by constructing a multi-layer network model combined with time-series analysis methods to reveal the interactions among different market participants and their impacts on risk propagation. Data from major international financial markets between 2010 and 2022 were selected, and complex network theory along with extreme event analysis techniques were employed to identify critical risk nodes and evaluate their roles in crisis transmission. The results indicate that the strength and structural characteristics of interconnections among financial institutions significantly influence the efficiency of systemic risk transmission, while cross-border capital flows play a crucial role in the diffusion of crises. The novelty of this research lies in the introduction of a dynamic network analysis fr amework, which addresses the limitations of traditional static models and proposes a risk early warning indicator system based on node importance ranking. These findings provide theoretical support and practical guidance for regulatory authorities to optimize macro-prudential policies, thereby enhancing the stability and resilience of the financial system.
Keywords: Systemic Risk；Dynamic Network Analysis；Cross-border Capital Flow
目 录
引言 1
一、系统性风险的理论基础 1
（一）系统性风险的概念界定 1
（二）风险传导的核心机制分析 2
（三）国内外研究现状综述 2
二、金融市场风险传导路径分析 2
（一）跨市场风险传导机制 3
（二）金融机构间的风险溢出效应 3
（三）宏观经济因素对传导的影响 3
三、数据与模型构建方法研究 4
（一）数据选取与预处理方法 4
（二）动态网络模型的应用 4
（三）风险测度指标体系构建 5
四、实证分析与政策建议 5
（一）实证结果与关键发现 5
（二）不同场景下的传导模拟 6
（三）防范系统性风险的对策建议 6
结 论 6
致 谢 8
参考文献 9
