摘 要
人民币国际化作为中国深度参与全球经济治理的重要战略举措，其进程受到汇率波动的显著影响。本研究以人民币国际化为背景，探讨汇率波动对货币国际使用的影响机制及其经济后果。通过构建包含贸易、金融和储备功能的综合指标体系，并结合动态面板数据模型与事件分析法，本文量化评估了汇率波动对人民币国际化进程的作用路径及效应强度。研究发现，短期内汇率波动可能削弱人民币在国际贸易结算和外汇储备中的吸引力，但长期来看，稳定的汇率形成机制和灵活的市场调节能力有助于增强人民币的国际信任度。此外，本研究首次将跨境资本流动纳入分析框架，揭示了汇率波动通过金融市场渠道对人民币国际化产生的非线性影响。
关键词：人民币国际化 汇率波动 跨境资本流动
Abstract
As an important strategic measure for China to deeply participate in global economic governance, the process of RMB internationalization has been significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Against the background of RMB internationalization, this study discusses the influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on the international use of currency. By constructing a comprehensive index system including trade, finance and reserve functions, and combining with the dynamic panel data model and event analysis method, this paper quantitatively evaluates the effect path and effect intensity of exchange rate fluctuations on the process of RMB internationalization. The study found that in the short term, exchange rate fluctuations may weaken the attractiveness of the RMB in international trade settlement and foreign exchange reserves, but in the long term, a stable exchange rate formation mechanism and flexible market regulation capacity will help to enhance the international trust of the RMB. Moreover, this study for the first time incorporated cross-border capital flows into the analytical fr amework, revealing the non-linear impact of exchange rate fluctuations on RMB internationalization through financial market channels.
Keyword:Rmb Internationalization Exchange Rate Fluctuation Cross-border Capital Flow
目 录
引言 1
1人民币国际化背景与汇率波动基础 1
1.1人民币国际化的内涵与发展阶段 1
1.2汇率波动的基本概念与特征分析 2
1.3人民币国际化与汇率波动的关联性 2
1.4研究人民币国际化中汇率波动的意义 3
2汇率波动对人民币国际化的宏观影响 3
2.1汇率波动对国际贸易结算的影响 3
2.2汇率波动对资本流动的作用机制 4
2.3汇率波动对储备货币地位的挑战 4
2.4宏观经济政策在汇率波动中的调节作用 5
3汇率波动对人民币国际化微观主体的影响 5
3.1汇率波动对企业跨境交易的成本影响 5
3.2汇率波动对投资者信心的冲击分析 5
3.3汇率波动对金融机构风险管理的要求 6
3.4微观主体应对汇率波动的策略选择 6
4推动人民币国际化进程中汇率稳定的对策研究 7
4.1汇率形成机制改革的方向与路径 7
4.2国际金融市场中人民币汇率稳定措施 7
4.3政府监管与市场力量的协同作用分析 8
4.4提升人民币国际化抗风险能力的建议 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
