摘 要
“一带一路”倡议为中国能源企业对外投资提供了广阔的发展空间，但同时也伴随着诸多风险。本研究旨在系统分析中国能源企业在“一带一路”沿线国家投资过程中面临的各类风险因素及其应对策略。基于对68个沿线国家的投资环境评估，结合2013 - 2022年期间中国能源企业海外投资项目数据，采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，构建了涵盖政治、经济、社会文化、技术及环境五个维度的风险评价指标体系，并运用层次分析法确定各指标权重。研究发现，政治稳定性、法律法规完善程度、地缘政治风险是影响投资决策的关键因素；汇率波动、市场准入限制以及基础设施建设水平等经济因素同样不可忽视；社会文化差异和技术标准不统一也给企业运营带来挑战。通过对比分析成功与失败案例，提出加强政府间合作机制建设、优化投资结构、提升风险管理能力等建议。
关 键 词：一带一路；能源企业对外投资；风险评价指标体系
Research on Chinese energy enterprises' outbound investment risks under the Belt and Road Initiative
ABSTRACT
The Belt and Road Initiative provides a broad development space for Chinese energy companies to invest abroad, but it is also accompanied by many risks. The purpose of this study is to systematically analyze various risk factors faced by Chinese energy enterprises in the process of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" and their coping strategies. Based on the investment environment assessment of 68 countries along the Belt and Road, combined with the data of overseas investment projects of Chinese energy enterprises from 2013 to 2022, a risk assessment index system covering five dimensions of politics, economy, social culture, technology and environment is constructed by combining qualitative and quantitative research methods, and the weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process. It is found that political stability, the perfection of laws and regulations and geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting investment decision. Economic factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, market access restrictions, and the level of infrastructure development cannot be ignored. Social and cultural differences and inconsistent technical standards also pose challenges to business operations. Through comparative analysis of successful and failed cases, the paper puts forward suggestions on strengthening inter-governmental cooperation mechanism construction, optimizing investment structure, and improving risk management capacity.
KEY WORDS：The Belt and Road; Foreign investment of energy enterprises; Risk evaluation index system
目 录
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究的意义与价值 1
1.2 国内外研究现状综述 1
第2章 政治与政策风险分析 3
2.1 沿线国家政治稳定性评估 3
2.2 投资政策环境变化风险 3
2.3 地缘政治因素的影响 4
第3章 经济与市场风险探讨 6
3.1 目标市场经济发展水平差异 6
3.2 能源市场价格波动风险 6
3.3 汇率变动对投资收益影响 7
第4章 法律与合规风险考察 9
4.1 国际法律框架下的挑战 9
4.2 当地法律法规的适应性 9
4.3 合规运营的风险管理策略 10
结 论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
