摘 要
管理层盈余预测准确性与企业信誉的关系研究旨在探讨在资本市场中，管理层发布的盈余预测信息对企业信誉的影响。随着资本市场的不断发展，信息透明度和质量成为投资者关注的重点，管理层盈余预测作为公司内部信息对外披露的重要方式，其准确性直接影响着投资者对企业的信任程度。本研究基于信号传递理论和信息不对称理论，选取2010 - 2020年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，采用多元回归分析方法，以修正的Ohlson模型衡量盈余预测准确性，通过构建企业信誉评价指标体系来量化企业信誉。研究发现，管理层盈余预测准确性与企业信誉之间存在显著正相关关系，即较高的盈余预测准确性有助于提升企业信誉；进一步研究发现，在不同产权性质下这种关系存在差异，非国有企业更为明显。此外，媒体关注在两者之间起到正向调节作用，当企业受到更多媒体关注时，盈余预测准确性对企业信誉的积极影响会被强化。本研究创新性地将盈余预测准确性与企业信誉相联系，拓展了盈余预测经济后果的研究范畴，同时为企业提高自身信誉提供了新的思路，即重视并努力提高盈余预测准确性，尤其是在媒体关注度较高的情况下，这有助于企业在资本市场上树立良好形象，增强投资者信心。
关键词：盈余预测准确性；企业信誉；信号传递理论；媒体关注；产权性质差异
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts and corporate reputation in capital markets, aiming to explore how earnings forecast information released by management affects corporate reputation. As capital markets continue to develop, information transparency and quality have become focal points for investors. Management earnings forecasts, as a critical means of disclosing internal company information, directly influence investors' trust in the enterprise. Based on signaling theory and information asymmetry theory, this research selects A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2020 as samples, employing multiple regression analysis. The modified Ohlson model is used to measure the accuracy of earnings forecasts, while a corporate reputation evaluation index system is constructed to quantify corporate reputation. The findings reveal a significant positive correlation between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts and corporate reputation, indicating that higher forecast accuracy contributes to enhanced corporate reputation. Further analysis shows that this relationship varies across different ownership structures, being more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises. Additionally, media attention plays a positive moderating role; when firms receive greater media coverage, the positive impact of earnings forecast accuracy on corporate reputation is intensified. This study innovatively links earnings forecast accuracy with corporate reputation, expanding the scope of research on the economic consequences of earnings forecasts. It also provides new insights for firms seeking to improve their reputation, emphasizing the importance of enhancing earnings forecast accuracy, particularly under high media scrutiny, which can help establish a positive image and bolster investor confidence in capital markets.
Keywords：Earnings Forecast Accuracy；Firm Reputation；Signaling Theory；Media Attention；Property Rights Differences
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 管理层盈余预测准确性概述 2
1.1 盈余预测的定义与重要性 2
1.2 盈余预测准确性的衡量指标 2
1.3 影响盈余预测准确性的因素 3
第二章 企业信誉的构成与影响 5
2.1 企业信誉的内涵与维度 5
2.2 企业信誉对企业价值的影响 5
2.3 企业信誉的评价体系 6
第三章 盈余预测准确性对企业信誉的影响机制 8
3.1 盈余预测准确性与市场信任 8
3.2 盈余预测准确性与投资者信心 8
3.3 盈余预测准确性与企业声誉风险 9
第四章 实证研究：盈余预测准确性与企业信誉的关系 11
4.1 研究假设与模型构建 11
4.2 数据来源与样本选择 11
4.3 实证结果与分析 12
结 论 14
参考文献 15
致 谢 16
