本研究探讨了能源价格波动对宏观经济稳定性的影响机制及其政策启示。基于2000-2022年全球主要经济体的面板数据，采用向量自回归模型（VAR）和动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）相结合的方法，系统分析了能源价格冲击对经济增长、通货膨胀和就业等宏观经济变量的传导路径。研究发现，能源价格波动通过生产成本渠道、贸易条件渠道和货币政策渠道对宏观经济产生显著影响，其中石油价格的冲击效应尤为突出。实证结果表明，能源价格上涨1%将导致GDP增长率下降0.15%，CPI上涨0.3%，失业率上升0.1%。研究创新性地构建了包含能源部门的开放经济DSGE模型，揭示了不同货币政策框架下能源价格冲击的异质性效应。
关键词：能源价格波动 宏观经济稳定性 货币政策传导
Abstract
This study explores the influence mechanism of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic stability and its policy implications. Based on the panel data of major global economies from 2000 to 2022, the vector autoregression model (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) are used to systematically analyze the transmission path of energy price shock on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and employment. It is found that energy price fluctuations have a significant impact on the macro economy through the production cost channel, trade terms channel and monetary policy channel, among which the impact effect of oil price is particularly prominent. The empirical results show that a 1% increase in energy prices will lead to a 0.15% decline in GDP growth, a 0.3% rise in CPI and a 0.1% rise in unemployment. The research innovatively constructed the open economy DSGE model including the energy sector, and revealed the heterogeneous effect of energy price impact under different monetary policy fr ameworks.
Keyword: Energy price fluctuations Macroeconomic stability Monetary policy transmission目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究现状 1
1.3本文研究方法与创新点 2
2能源价格波动的形成机制与特征分析 2
2.1国际能源市场供需结构演变 2
2.2地缘政治因素对能源价格的影响 3
2.3金融市场投机行为的作用机制 3
3能源价格波动对宏观经济稳定的传导路径 4
3.1生产成本渠道的传导效应 4
3.2通货膨胀机制的运行机理 4
3.3国际贸易收支的联动效应 5
4能源价格波动对宏观经济稳定的实证分析 5
4.1VAR模型构建与变量选择 6
4.2脉冲响应函数分析结果 6
4.3方差分解结果解读 7
5结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
